Is global warming a hypothesis or theory? | Climate …
Figure 1: The Younger Dryas event as an example of abrupt climate change. Source:
Is global warming a hypothesis or ..
Another claim is that profound levels of species extinctions will occur due to global warming. One recent study (), claimed that 15 to 37% of species in examined areas would be "committed to extinction" by 2050 due to global warming. This is cited as implying a loss of over one million species. These and similar estimates of species lost rely on extrapolations from small area studies to estimates involving large numbers of hypothetical, undiscovered species. Most of the 1,000 or so documented extinctions in the past few centuries, though, resulted from the introduction of non-native species or from habitat destruction; few have proposed links to climate change.
The United Nations IPCC also publishes a research review in the form of a voluminous, occasionally-updated report on the subject of climate change, which the United Nations asserts is “authored” by approximately 600 scientists. These “authors” are not, however – as is ordinarily the custom in science – permitted power of approval the published review of which they are putative authors. They are permitted to comment on the draft text, but the final text neither conforms to nor includes many of their comments. The final text conforms instead to the United Nations objective of building support for world taxation and rationing of industrially-useful energy.
The Global Warming Hypothesis and Ocean Heat | …
In this context it may be noted that the debate about global warming often strays from the scientific evidence. Those scientists that criticize the popular view regarding global warming are often criticized based on their affiliations or alleged sources of funding. Sometimes such criticisms are false or misleading, but even if accurate, they are not pertinent to the scientific facts.
Figure 3: Locations of the main records of abrupt climate change in the last 40,000 years. The inserted curve is a proxy for the temperature of precipitated snow over Greenland. (Source: Wallace Broecker)
The current hypothesis on anthropogenic global warming ..
The issue here is whether measurable, verifiable changes are occurring. Implicit here is that these changes are outside the normal or expected natural variations in climate.
The ground-based record shows an increase in global temperature of 0.6° C from 1910 to 1940, followed by a decrease of 0.1° C to 1979. These changes are generally undisputed. The record since 1979, however, is problematic. Ground-based series show a warming trend of 0.20° C per decade, significantly greater than the trend from radiosonodes or satellite MSUs.
Occam’s Razor, The Null Hypothesis And Global Warming
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What I will describe as the "anthropogenic global warming" hypothesis includes the following claims:
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Scientists predict that this increase may enhance the greenhouse effect making the planet warmer.
The Scientific Method, the History of Global Warming, …
This plot shows a measurement of global warming that directly addressed all of the ..
How We Know Recent Global Warming Is Not Natural
Another explanation is that there are systematic errors in the ground-based series. Urban areas tend to have microclimates warmer than surrounding rural areas (this is the urban heat island effect or UHI), and many ground-based measuring stations are in or near growing cities. The compiled series have had "corrections" applied to the individual temperature records, but there remain strong correlations between urban growth and reported temperature increases (). It is far from clear that current corrections are sufficient to produce an unbiased series. Individual stations have been shown to have significant uncorrected bias due to UHI (), significant bias due to placement (; ); in addition, the grid-averaging methods used has been shown to place significant weighting on stations with questionable accuracy records and to preferentially use stations showing warming trends (; ). Ground-based measurements also need to be correctly controlled for small-scale phenomena such as wind speed and humidity gradients (). More generally, land use changes may produce effects on temperature which are not currently considered ().
the Null Hypothesis, and Anthropogenic Global ..
This "scientific consensus" is in part a reference to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. The IPCC is a United Nations-affiliated international panel of scientists and others. The IPCC has issued three "consensus" reports on climate change, in 1990 (), 1995 (), and 2001 (), with a fourth currently being drafted. The IPCC reports have drawn criticism with regard to politicization of the drafting process, alteration of the final summaries by bureaucrats after drafting by the scientists, and rejection of minority opinion. This highlights the importance of assessing the issue by the merits of the scientific evidence, not on reports of consensus.
Empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming
Geochemical similarity of volcanic tephra shards found at Tell Leilan and in the deep-sea sediment core provided further evidence that the Akkadian collapse and climate change events were synchronous (). Enhanced regional aridity is also indicated by increased wind-blown quartz deposition in nearby Lake Van at the headwaters of the Tigris River () and by paleoclimate records from the Levant (). The combined archaeological and paleoclimate evidence strongly implicates abrupt climate change as a key factor leading to the demise of this highly complex society.
that humans are causing global warming
Prior to 1998, recent climate history was understood to include a warm period around 900-1300 termed the Medieval Warm Period, followed by a cool period around 1600-1850 termed the Little Ice Age. These were understood to have had observable impacts on human society, although researchers debated how widespread these trends were. In 1998-99 one group published reconstructions of global temperature for the past 600-1000 years based primarily on tree ring records along with other proxies (; ); it showed little variation (± 0.2° C) from 1000 to 1900, followed by an abrupt temperature rise to the highest levels in the past millennium. These results, nicknamed the "hockey stick" graph due to the flat trend followed by an abrupt rise, were highlighted in the IPCC 2001 report ().
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